Japan's upper house election no longer one horse race

TOKYO, June 28 (Xinhua) -- With less than two weeks of campaigning left until the Japanese upper house election on July 11th, the ruling Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) and main opposition Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) look set to go right down to the wire, with a number of minor parties also ramping up their street campaigns from Monday hoping to cause an upset

Political Analysis had thought the DPJ-bloc would be a shoo-in to win a majority in the upper house, as public support for Prime Minister Naoto Kan's Cabinet had been hovering around a very respectable 60 percent, however according to prominent national dailies on Monday support for the new prime minister's cabinet is beginning to wane at this very crucial moment

The latest Yomiuri Shimbun poll revealed Monday that public support had declined to 50 percent, dropping from the 55 percent shown in the survey the newspaper took a week earlier and the Asahi Shimbun said the Cabinet support rate slipped to 48 percent from 50 percent

Somewhat predictably, both reports cited the DPJ's possible consumption tax hike, as a measure to combat the nation's monumental debt -- the biggest in the industrialized world -- as not sitting well with the Japanese public

If the DPJ do manage to keep control of the House of Councilors, they will likely have a three year spell of control with which to shape policy before they face another public ballot

The DPJ's manifesto sets out clear goals for sustainable growth, sustainable government finances and calls for a bipartisan debate on tax reform, the latter being a key policy that could make or break the future of the ruling DPJ

Kan himself suggested that a hike in consumption tax to 10 percent is something which is likely to happen in the next two to three years. The idea also appears in the opposition LDP's election manifesto and Kan drew the ire of supporters and opponents alike for suggesting that it was the LDP's figure he was using as a reference point. Shigeru Ishiba, the LDP's Policy Research Council chairman went even further, calling the DPJ manifesto "a copycat monster."

For some though, increasing consumption tax, which might prevent government deficits from ballooning further, will place unacceptable restrictions on the livelihoods of average Japanese citizens

Shizuka Kamei, head of the pro-spending People's New Party (PNP) , the last remaining faction of the DPJ's shattered coalition, opposed such measures and accused Kan of being out of touch with the general public due to his not fully understanding the hardships people are facing now

"Up until the manifestos were revealed, political circles believed the DPJ would win a majority in the upper house in July, possibly without the help of the PNP, but it seems to me there's been a shift in public perception, triggered by the almost certain raising of tax," Dr. David Mclellan, a professor of Asian Studies at Waseda University, told Xinhua

"Essentially the government's debt will be passed onto the public and many feel that Mr. Kan has not explained himself fully regarding this -- this is a major error as the public have not yet recovered from the historic letdown caused by Kan's predecessor Yukio Hatoyama."

"The DPJ have to realize, whether they secure the upper house or not -- although the likelihood is they will but perhaps not as easily as first thought -- they are dealing with a very disgruntled public and perhaps more seriously an increasingly apathetic public -- a mistrusting public who now doubt any leadership is good for their word and can effect positive fiscal reform that will benefit them," said the 20-year resident of Japan, adding that the DPJ literally need to spell out their domestic and foreign policy plans

There is also the small matter of the DPJ promising before last year's lower house elections that they would not raise consumption tax for another four years

Kan's speech at the Japan National Press Club recently suggested that this promise would be roundly ignored and comes hot on the heels of former premier Yukio Hatoyama reneging on a pre- election promise to move a controversial air base off Okinawa island -- a promise he failed to keep, resulting in his demise as the leader of Japan

Aside from reiterating Kan's commitment to the U.S.-Japan security alliance and as recently as this weekend at the G8 and G20 summits in Toronto, Canada, President Barack Obama recapitulated his belief that Japan represents the cornerstone of peace and security in the Asia Pacific region, Kan has yet to elucidate his plans to tighten political and economic alliances with a rapidly developing China, and on the home front exactly how, for example, he plans to "relieve" the base hosting burden shouldered by the residents of Okinawa Prefecture

Hence, the DPJ may find their manifesto and subsequent pledges are taken by the public with a pinch of salt, or outright skepticism

Indeed, New Komeito party chief Natsuo Yamaguchi has said to Kan that he must first apologize to the citizens of Japan for an inaccurate manifesto before even considering raising the consumption tax

Another issue at which opposition parties have taken aim is the DPJ's continuation of the monthly child allowance. The policy, implemented in April of this year, is attracting a lot of criticism amid the nation's severe financial conditions and it is estimated that in fiscal 2011, the allocations will cost the nation somewhere in the region of 5.4 trillion yen (60.44 billion U.S. dollars)

"On the one hand Kan, thanks to his previous experience of handling the nation's finances, has a degree of credibility behind him when discussing issues of (fiscal) reform and tackling deflation," Tetsuyo Shimura, director of affairs at the Asian Exchange Foundation, told Xinhua

"However, whilst child benefit for example is a winning ticket with the public, Kan's ideas for massive fiscal restoration are fairly challenging and if they are not implementable or fail at a later stage, we could see a very short reign for a DPJ already plagued with issues of money mismanagement and back room dealings. Kan's moves towards cross-party discussions represent a progressive move forward for Japanese politics, although some are saying it's the DPJ's way of sharing the blame if things don't work out," he said

Lawmaker Hajime Ishii who is head of the Democrat's election campaign candidly said recently that if a vote were held now, the DPJ would get around 50 seats or so, this unfortunately would not be enough and his words will hardly inspire an increasingly skeptical electorate

The DPJ alone needs at least 60 seats to take an outright majority, allowing them to pass bills without the approval of cumbersome coalition partners, but the good money would be on the ruling coalition looking to secure at least 56 of the 121 seats to be contested to keep a majority in the upper house -- and at a minimum maintain the party's current 54 seats

On the other side of the fence, LDP President Sadakazu Tanigaki began outlining his party's manifesto back in April

Tanigaki, who replaced ex-Prime Minister Taro Aso as the leader of the opposition last year, failed to go into numerical detail on tax reform in recent discussions, but promised to reverse the deflationary economic trend and kick-start a revival

He failed to make any real statement on the issue of relocating U.S. military bases, promising only to steadily proceed with the existing realignment of U.S. forces plan, suggesting that they would just wait and see how the DPJ would play it -- they played it awfully

Tanigaki stated at a recent press conference that he wants Japan to be the world leader in public safety, education and manufacturing and that the LDP would create new jobs by strengthening international competitiveness and helping local communities get back on their feet

As a reaction to Kan's comments on tax, Tanigaki said that he would not let the LDP become embroiled in interparty talks on the subject until the DPJ leader renounced his party's manifesto from the previous year

In the end though it is a numbers game and the DPJ will be hoping that the axing of Hatoyama and 'Shadow Shogun' Ichiro Ozawa will display a willingness to start afresh and garner voter support on a promise of clean politics. However, as issues of money scandals have already surfaced in Kan's embryonic camp, promises of "clean politics" has become a dirty pledge

The LDP will continue to focus on the trail of broken promises that saw Yukio Hatoyama become the fourth Japanese Prime Minister in a row to spend less than a year in office -- promises that will continue to haunt the DPJ as they seek to consolidate power in the upper house

As the pre-election sniping and undermining escalates, Kan and Tanigaki will both need a united front from their parties. Neither man can afford the infighting and factionalism that often typify the build up to house elections in this country

"Kan will have to steer attention away from assessments of the Hatoyama administration and concentrate on more realistic policy making and making this clearer to the public," McLellan said, adding "it remains to be seen however if the voters are willing to be persuaded, or if they have simply had enough."

Political commentators are saying that the LDP and a number of smaller parties such as Your Party, Sunrise Party of Japan, New Komeito and the Japanese Communist Party, may be looking to join forces in discrediting the DPJ in the eyes of the public, over past issues that have plagued the party

Anti-DPJ parties will jointly be looking to prevent the ruling party securing an upper house majority by they themselves collectively winning 66 seats. Want to find out more about house number?

However, to avoid potential policy deadlocks, if the DPJ fail to win a majority on July 11, pundits suggest the DPJ will likely seek to broaden its alliance with other smaller parties

Either which way, support rate for Kan's cabinet is falling and what was until recently looking at being a one-horse race for the upper house, is turning into a veritable political skirmish, with Tanigaki so confident the LDP will win a majority, he has staked his job on it. Enditem